Upcoming economic events 19 December 2024

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 19, 2024

1. Japan Bank of Japan (BoJ) Events (02:30–06:30 UTC):
   • Monetary Policy Statement: Provides insights into the BoJ’s policy direction.
   • Interest Rate Decision (03:00): Forecast: 0.25%, Previous: 0.25%.
   • Press Conference (06:30): Commentary by Governor Ueda will clarify the BoJ’s stance.
     No changes are expected, but signals regarding inflation or yen intervention could impact the JPY.
2. Eurozone EU Leaders Summit (10:00 UTC):
   Discussions on fiscal policy, energy security, and growth could influence the EUR, especially if policies signal economic optimism or uncertainty.
3. US Economic Data (13:30–15:00 UTC):
   • GDP (QoQ) (Q3): Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 3.0%.
   • Core PCE Prices (Q3): Forecast: 2.1%, Previous: 2.8%.
   • Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast: 229K, Previous: 242K.
   • Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (Dec): Forecast: 3.0, Previous: -5.5.
   • Existing Home Sales (Nov): Forecast: 4.09M, Previous: 3.96M.
     Positive surprises in GDP, housing, or manufacturing would support the USD. Weaker data would suggest slowing economic momentum, potentially weighing on the currency.
4. US Leading Index & TIC Transactions (15:00–21:00 UTC):
   • Leading Index (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: -0.1%, Previous: -0.4%.
   • TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (Oct): Previous: 216.1B.
     Declining leading indices suggest weaker growth outlooks. Rising TIC transactions indicate strong foreign demand for US assets, supporting the USD.
5. Japan Inflation Data (23:30 UTC):
   • National Core CPI (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 2.6%, Previous: 2.3%.
   • National CPI (MoM) (Nov): Previous: 0.4%.
     Rising inflation would support the JPY by increasing pressure on the BoJ to normalize policy. Weak inflation could weigh on the currency.

Market Impact Analysis

• BoJ Events:
  Stable rates with dovish commentary would weigh on the JPY, while hawkish tones (e.g., acknowledging inflation risks) could boost it.
• Eurozone EU Leaders Summit:
  Positive fiscal or growth outlooks would support the EUR. Geopolitical or energy concerns could pressure the currency.
• US Data:
  • Positive Scenario: Strong GDP, improving jobless claims, and higher manufacturing indices would support the USD.
  • Negative Scenario: Weaker growth or housing data could weigh on the USD and signal economic cooling.
• Japan Inflation:
  Higher CPI readings would support the JPY by raising expectations of policy shifts. Weak inflation could diminish such prospects.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
High, driven by BoJ policy events, US GDP and inflation data, and Eurozone summit outcomes.

Impact Score: 8/10, with critical influences from the BoJ’s tone, US growth indicators, and Japanese inflation shaping market movements for JPY, USD, and EUR.