Upcoming economic events 16 December 2024

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 16, 2024

1. Japan Services PMI (Dec) (00:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 50.5.
     Indicates activity in Japan’s service sector. A PMI above 50 signals expansion. Strong data would support the JPY, while weaker readings could weigh on the currency.
2. China Economic Data (02:00 UTC):
   • Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 3.5%, Previous: 3.4%.
   • Industrial Production (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.3%.
   • Unemployment Rate (Nov): Forecast: 5.0%, Previous: 5.0%.
     Indicators of economic activity and labor market conditions in China. Strong data would support the CNY and global risk sentiment, benefiting commodity-linked currencies like AUD.
3. Eurozone Economic Events (08:15–16:30 UTC):
   • ECB Speeches: President Lagarde (08:15, 08:35), De Guindos (08:45), Schnabel (16:30).
     Commentary on monetary policy and economic conditions will impact EUR sentiment.
   • HCOB PMIs (Dec) (09:00 UTC):
     • Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 45.3, Previous: 45.2.
     • Composite PMI: Previous: 48.3.
     • Services PMI: Forecast: 49.5, Previous: 49.5.
       PMIs below 50 indicate contraction. Stabilization or improvement would support the EUR, while further declines may weigh on the currency.
   • Eurozone Wages (YoY) (Q3) (10:00 UTC):
     • Previous: 4.50%.
       Reflects wage growth trends. Accelerating wages would support the EUR by signaling inflationary pressures.
4. US Economic Data (13:30–14:45 UTC):
   • NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Dec): Forecast: 6.40, Previous: 31.20.
   • S&P Global PMIs (Dec) (14:45 UTC):
     • Manufacturing PMI: Forecast: 49.4, Previous: 49.7.
     • Composite PMI: Previous: 54.9.
     • Services PMI: Forecast: 55.7, Previous: 56.1.
       Weak PMIs would weigh on the USD, while strong data would reinforce USD strength by signaling resilience in economic activity.

Market Impact Analysis

• Japan Services PMI:
  Improving PMI would signal expansion in the services sector, supporting the JPY. Declining PMI could indicate economic headwinds, weighing on the currency.
• China Economic Data:
  Strong industrial production or fixed asset investment would signal robust economic activity, supporting the CNY and boosting commodity-linked currencies. Weak data could dampen global risk sentiment.
• Eurozone PMIs & ECB Speeches:
  Stabilizing or improving PMIs would support the EUR by signaling resilience. Hawkish ECB commentary from Lagarde, De Guindos, or Schnabel would reinforce EUR strength, while dovish remarks would weaken it.
• US PMIs & Empire State Index:
  Positive data would indicate resilience in manufacturing and services, supporting the USD. Weaker PMIs would suggest economic slowing, potentially weighing on the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, with focus on PMIs from Japan, China, the Eurozone, and the US, alongside ECB commentary influencing EUR sentiment.

Impact Score: 7/10, driven by key PMI readings, ECB remarks, and US manufacturing and services data shaping market movements for JPY, CNY, EUR, and USD.