Upcoming economic events 17 December 2024

Summary of Upcoming Economic Events on December 17, 2024

1. Eurozone Economic Data (10:00 UTC):
   • ECB’s Elderson Speaks: Commentary on monetary policy or economic conditions could impact the EUR.
   • Trade Balance (Oct): Forecast: 11.9B, Previous: 12.5B.
     Indicates the net trade position of the Eurozone. A higher surplus supports the EUR, while a decline suggests weaker external demand.
   • ZEW Economic Sentiment (Dec): Forecast: 11.8, Previous: 12.5.
     Reflects investor confidence. A higher reading supports the EUR by indicating improving expectations for economic conditions.
2. US Retail & Industrial Data (13:30–15:00 UTC):
   • Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.1%.
   • Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: 0.4%.
   • Industrial Production (MoM) (Nov): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: -0.3%.
   • Business Inventories (MoM) (Oct): Forecast: 0.2%, Previous: 0.1%.
     Strong retail and industrial data support the USD by signaling resilient consumer demand and manufacturing activity. Weak figures would suggest slowing momentum, potentially weighing on the currency.
3. US 20-Year Bond Auction (18:00 UTC):
   • Previous Yield: 4.680%.
     Higher yields reflect increased demand for returns or rising inflation expectations, supporting the USD.
4. US API Weekly Crude Oil Stock (21:30 UTC):
   • Previous: 0.499M.
     Drawdowns indicate strong demand, supporting oil prices and commodity-linked currencies like CAD. Builds suggest weaker demand, pressuring prices.
5. New Zealand Current Account (Q3) (21:45 UTC):
   • QoQ: Forecast: -10.45B, Previous: -4.83B.
   • YoY: Previous: -27.76B.
     A shrinking deficit supports the NZD by signaling improving trade dynamics, while a widening deficit weighs on the currency.
6. Japan Trade Data (23:50 UTC):
   • Adjusted Trade Balance (Nov): Forecast: -0.45T, Previous: -0.36T.
   • Exports (YoY) (Nov): Forecast: 2.8%, Previous: 3.1%.
   • Trade Balance (Nov): Forecast: -688.9B, Previous: 462.1B.
     Higher exports or improving trade balances would support the JPY by reflecting strong external demand. Weak data would weigh on the currency.

Market Impact Analysis

• Eurozone Data:
  Improving trade balances or sentiment would support the EUR, signaling recovery in external and investor confidence. Weak readings would suggest challenges, weighing on the currency.
• US Retail & Industrial Data:
  Strong retail sales and industrial production figures would reinforce expectations of economic resilience, supporting the USD. Weak data would suggest slowing demand and weigh on the currency.
• New Zealand Current Account:
  A narrowing deficit would signal improving economic conditions, supporting the NZD. A widening deficit could weigh on the currency.
• Japan Trade Data:
  Higher exports or a narrowing trade deficit would support the JPY, reflecting strong external demand. Weak data would suggest challenges, weighing on the currency.

Overall Impact

Volatility:
Moderate to high, driven by critical retail and industrial data from the US, Eurozone trade and sentiment reports, and trade balances from New Zealand and Japan.

Impact Score: 7/10, with US retail sales, industrial production, and Eurozone trade data being key drivers for USD, EUR, NZD, and JPY movements.